tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Portland via Las Vegas: arrives on time 48%

  1. 15:49 SFO → 17:30 LAS
    AS 776 · Alaska · 1h 41m · 63% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:27 LAS → 20:46 PDX
    AS 779 · Alaska · 2h 19m · 82% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip4h 57mSFO 15:49 to PDX 20:46, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.