tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Honolulu via Las Vegas: arrives on time 34%

  1. 15:49 SFO → 17:30 LAS
    AS 776 · Alaska · 1h 41m · 63% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:20 LAS → 21:39 HNL
    AS 805 · Alaska · 6h 19m · 70% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip8h 50mSFO 15:49 to HNL 21:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.