tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → San Diego via Las Vegas: arrives on time 10%

  1. 15:49 SFO → 17:30 LAS
    AS 776 · Alaska · 1h 41m · 63% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:19 LAS → 19:36 SAN
    AS 2251 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 17m · 24% on time, 9.8% cancelled

Total trip 3h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time10%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (9.8% are) and within 15 minutes (24%).
Total trip3h 47mSFO 15:49 to SAN 19:36, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.