tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → San Francisco via Portland: arrives on time 51%

  1. 18:27 LAS → 20:46 PDX
    AS 779 · Alaska · 2h 19m · 82% on time, 0.9% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:45 PDX → 23:36 SFO
    AS 2112 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 51m · 64% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection82%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 18% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (0.9% are) × connection made (82%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 09mLAS 18:27 to SFO 23:36, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.