tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Santa Ana via Seattle: arrives on time 85%

  1. 07:03 BWI → 09:53 SEA
    AS 786 · Alaska · 5h 50m · 82% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 3h 56m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:49 SEA → 16:41 SNA
    AS 773 · Alaska · 2h 52m · 87% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 12h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 191 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 56m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip12h 38mBWI 07:03 to SNA 16:41, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.