tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Fresno via Seattle: arrives on time 46%

  1. 14:20 SFO → 16:31 SEA
    AS 790 · Alaska · 2h 11m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:25 SEA → 19:36 FAT
    AS 393 · Alaska · 2h 11m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 16m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip5h 16mSFO 14:20 to FAT 19:36, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.