tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → New York via San Francisco: arrives on time 66%

  1. 17:36 SEA → 19:52 SFO
    AS 791 · Alaska · 2h 16m · 28% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 38m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 SFO → 06:20 JFK +1 day
    AS 211 · Alaska · 5h 50m · 92% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 9h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 53 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 38m layover.
Arrives on time66%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (92%).
Total trip9h 44mSEA 17:36 to JFK 06:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.