tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Santa Ana via San Francisco: arrives on time 20%

  1. 17:36 SEA → 19:52 SFO
    AS 791 · Alaska · 2h 16m · 28% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:52 SFO → 22:30 SNA
    AS 3464 · Alaska, flown by SkyWest · 1h 38m · 75% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 38 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection28%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 72% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (28%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip4h 54mSEA 17:36 to SNA 22:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.