tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Santa Ana via Seattle: arrives on time 58%

  1. 08:03 SMF → 10:09 SEA
    AS 795 · Alaska · 2h 06m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:06 SEA → 13:55 SNA
    AS 1357 · Alaska · 2h 49m · 85% on time, 0.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (0.4% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip5h 52mSMF 08:03 to SNA 13:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.