tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Honolulu via Seattle: arrives on time 37%

  1. 08:03 SMF → 10:09 SEA
    AS 795 · Alaska · 2h 06m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:55 SEA → 14:04 HNL
    AS 626 · Alaska · 6h 09m · 63% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip9h 01mSMF 08:03 to HNL 14:04, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.