tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Santa Rosa via Seattle: arrives on time 51%

  1. 06:02 PHX → 09:08 SEA
    AS 799 · Alaska · 3h 06m · 83% on time, 1.3% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:54 SEA → 11:58 STS
    AS 1321 · Alaska · 2h 04m · 83% on time, 1.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 11 of the last 56 days, too few to list among the best connections.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (1.3% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (1.2% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip5h 56mPHX 06:02 to STS 11:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.