tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Los Angeles → Kailua/Kona via Honolulu: arrives on time 43%

  1. 10:05 LAX → 12:58 HNL
    AS 803 · Alaska · 5h 53m · 54% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Honolulu (HNL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:04 HNL → 15:08 KOA
    AS 1118 · Alaska · 1h 04m · 77% on time, 6.4% cancelled

Total trip 8h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Los Angeles). Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (6.4% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip8h 03mLAX 10:05 to KOA 15:08, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.