tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Lihue via Honolulu: arrives on time 56%

  1. 08:30 SFO → 11:10 HNL
    AS 811 · Alaska · 5h 40m · 68% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 2h 05m layover in Honolulu (HNL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:15 HNL → 13:58 LIH
    AS 1073 · Alaska · 43m · 62% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 80 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 05m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip8h 28mSFO 08:30 to LIH 13:58, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.