tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Kailua/Kona via Honolulu: arrives on time 60%

  1. 08:30 SFO → 11:10 HNL
    AS 811 · Alaska · 5h 40m · 68% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Honolulu (HNL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:25 HNL → 13:13 KOA
    AS 1098 · Alaska · 48m · 74% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection85%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 15% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (85%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip7h 43mSFO 08:30 to KOA 13:13, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.