tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Honolulu → New York via San Francisco: arrives on time 61%

  1. 12:20 HNL → 20:28 SFO
    AS 812 · Alaska · 5h 08m · 66% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 SFO → 06:20 JFK +1 day
    AS 211 · Alaska · 5h 50m · 92% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 12h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time61%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (92%).
Total trip12h 00mHNL 12:20 to JFK 06:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.