tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Honolulu → Las Vegas via San Diego: arrives on time 14%

  1. 12:39 HNL → 21:07 SAN
    AS 816 · Alaska · 5h 28m · 68% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:02 SAN → 23:28 LAS
    AS 2305 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 26m · 27% on time, 13.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time14%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (13.3% are) and within 15 minutes (27%).
Total trip7h 49mHNL 12:39 to LAS 23:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.