tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Kahului via Honolulu: arrives on time 55%

  1. 07:45 SMF → 10:27 HNL
    AS 819 · Alaska · 5h 42m · 78% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Honolulu (HNL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:24 HNL → 12:07 OGG
    AS 1086 · Alaska · 43m · 75% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 22m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip7h 22mSMF 07:45 to OGG 12:07, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.