tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Kahului via Honolulu: arrives on time 60%

  1. 08:00 SEA → 11:08 HNL
    AS 821 · Alaska · 6h 08m · 72% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 23m layover in Honolulu (HNL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:31 HNL → 13:15 OGG
    AS 1106 · Alaska · 44m · 70% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 8h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 38 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 23m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip8h 15mSEA 08:00 to OGG 13:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.