tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Honolulu → Detroit via Seattle: arrives on time 30%

  1. 12:50 HNL → 21:34 SEA
    AS 822 · Alaska · 5h 44m · 56% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:22 SEA → 05:41 DTW +1 day
    AS 343 · Alaska · 4h 19m · 86% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection35%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 65% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (35%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip10h 51mHNL 12:50 to DTW 05:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.