tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Fairbanks via Anchorage: arrives on time 62%

  1. 11:39 SEA → 14:27 ANC
    AS 83 · Alaska · 3h 48m · 72% on time, 1.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Anchorage (ANC) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:28 ANC → 16:31 FAI
    AS 2103 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 03m · 88% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 1 h behind Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time62%First flight not cancelled (1.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip5h 52mSEA 11:39 to FAI 16:31, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.