tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Kahului via Honolulu: arrives on time 53%

  1. 08:10 PHX → 11:53 HNL
    AS 835 · Alaska · 6h 43m · 80% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Honolulu (HNL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:01 HNL → 13:45 OGG
    AS 1116 · Alaska · 44m · 65% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection84%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 16% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (84%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip8h 35mPHX 08:10 to OGG 13:45, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.