tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Honolulu → Portland via Phoenix: arrives on time 41%

  1. 11:10 HNL → 20:08 PHX
    AS 836 · Alaska · 5h 58m · 83% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:56 PHX → 23:38 PDX
    AS 650 · Alaska · 2h 42m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip9h 28mHNL 11:10 to PDX 23:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.