tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Honolulu → San Diego via Seattle: arrives on time 33%

  1. 10:10 HNL → 18:59 SEA
    AS 839 · Alaska · 5h 49m · 34% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:07 SEA → 23:03 SAN
    AS 1398 · Alaska · 2h 56m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Times are local. Both flew on 25 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip9h 53mHNL 10:10 to SAN 23:03, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.