tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Honolulu → Phoenix via Seattle: arrives on time 17%

  1. 10:10 HNL → 18:59 SEA
    AS 839 · Alaska · 5h 49m · 34% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:55 SEA → 22:53 PHX
    AS 632 · Alaska · 2h 58m · 74% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 9h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection23%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 77% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time17%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (23%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip9h 43mHNL 10:10 to PHX 22:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.