tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Honolulu → Las Vegas via Seattle: arrives on time 52%

  1. 10:10 HNL → 18:59 SEA
    AS 839 · Alaska · 5h 49m · 34% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:15 SEA → 22:55 LAS
    AS 704 · Alaska · 2h 40m · 89% on time, 2.1% cancelled

Total trip 9h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (2.1% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip9h 45mHNL 10:10 to LAS 22:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.