tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Honolulu → Portland via Seattle: arrives on time 55%

  1. 10:10 HNL → 18:59 SEA
    AS 839 · Alaska · 5h 49m · 34% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 26m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:25 SEA → 21:22 PDX
    AS 2387 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 57m · 83% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 41 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 26m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip8h 12mHNL 10:10 to PDX 21:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.