tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Honolulu → Phoenix via Portland: arrives on time 40%

  1. 21:39 HNL → 06:11 PDX
    AS 880 · Alaska · 5h 32m · 77% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Portland (PDX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:00 PDX → 09:49 PHX +1 day
    AS 1349 · Alaska · 2h 49m · 88% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection46%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 54% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (46%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip9h 10mHNL 21:39 to PHX 09:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.