tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Honolulu → Oakland via San Diego: arrives on time 32%

  1. 07:30 HNL → 16:01 SAN
    AS 892 · Alaska · 5h 31m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:55 SAN → 18:33 OAK
    AS 2190 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 38m · 49% on time, 5.8% cancelled

Total trip 8h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (5.8% are) and within 15 minutes (49%).
Total trip8h 03mHNL 07:30 to OAK 18:33, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.