tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Kailua/Kona via Honolulu: arrives on time 36%

  1. 13:30 SEA → 16:34 HNL
    AS 899 · Alaska · 6h 04m · 53% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Honolulu (HNL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:30 HNL → 18:16 KOA
    AS 1158 · Alaska · 46m · 80% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection46%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 54% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (46%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip7h 46mSEA 13:30 to KOA 18:16, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.