tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Kahului via Honolulu: arrives on time 50%

  1. 13:30 SEA → 16:34 HNL
    AS 899 · Alaska · 6h 04m · 53% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 08m layover in Honolulu (HNL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:42 HNL → 18:23 OGG
    AS 1176 · Alaska · 41m · 82% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 23 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 08m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip7h 53mSEA 13:30 to OGG 18:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.