tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Honolulu → San Francisco via Seattle: arrives on time 32%

  1. 23:20 HNL → 08:00 SEA
    AS 900 · Alaska · 5h 40m · 73% on time, 1.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:53 SEA → 11:09 SFO +1 day
    AS 528 · Alaska · 2h 16m · 54% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (1.0% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip8h 49mHNL 23:20 to SFO 11:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.