tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Kailua/Kona via Kahului: arrives on time 70%

  1. 08:30 SMF → 10:56 OGG
    AS 959 · Alaska · 5h 26m · 87% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 3h 07m layover in Kahului (OGG) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:03 OGG → 14:39 KOA
    AS 1140 · Alaska · 36m · 72% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 9h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 142 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 07m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip9h 09mSMF 08:30 to KOA 14:39, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.