tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Sacramento via New York: arrives on time 38%

  1. 14:57 MCO → 17:44 JFK
    B6 1084 · JetBlue · 2h 54m · 79% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:31 JFK → 21:59 SMF
    B6 161 · JetBlue · 6h 29m · 61% on time, 3.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Orlando). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (3.0% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip10h 03mMCO 14:57 to SMF 21:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.