tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Martha's Vineyard → New York via Washington: arrives on time 34%

  1. 15:13 MVY → 16:51 DCA
    B6 1413 · JetBlue · 1h 38m · 55% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 49m layover in Washington (DCA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 18:40 DCA → 20:20 JFK
    AA 4336 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 40m · 76% on time, 16.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 1h 49m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (16.3% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip5h 07mMVY 15:13 to JFK 20:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.