tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Martha's Vineyard → Washington via New York: arrives on time 48%

  1. 17:26 MVY → 18:30 JFK
    B6 1539 · JetBlue · 1h 04m · 64% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 11m layover in New York (JFK) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 21:41 JFK → 23:23 DCA
    AA 4336 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 42m · 76% on time, 15.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection82%The first flight arrived more than 101 minutes late on 18% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 11m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (82%) × second flight not cancelled (15.7% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip5h 57mMVY 17:26 to DCA 23:23, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.