tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Buffalo via Orlando: arrives on time 45%

  1. 13:33 EWR → 16:20 MCO
    B6 1827 · JetBlue · 2h 47m · 67% on time, 3.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Orlando (MCO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 MCO → 20:28 BUF
    B6 1586 · JetBlue · 2h 48m · 64% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (3.6% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip6h 55mEWR 13:33 to BUF 20:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.