tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nantucket → New York via Washington: arrives on time 50%

  1. 10:52 ACK → 12:29 DCA
    B6 2493 · JetBlue · 1h 37m · 75% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 2h 25m layover in Washington (DCA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 14:54 DCA → 16:29 JFK
    AA 4781 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 35m · 62% on time, 5.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection89%The first flight arrived more than 55 minutes late on 11% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 25m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (89%) × second flight not cancelled (5.4% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip5h 37mACK 10:52 to JFK 16:29, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.