tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Harrisburg → Detroit via Dulles: arrives on time 67%

  1. 14:52 MDT → 15:50 IAD
    UA 4268 · United, flown by CommuteAir · 58m · 85% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 32m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:22 IAD → 19:02 DTW
    UA 6246 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 40m · 78% on time, 4.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 47 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 32m layover.
Arrives on time67%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip4h 10mMDT 14:52 to DTW 19:02, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.