Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Buffalo → New York via Dulles: arrives on time 46%
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15:00 BUF → 16:23 IADUA 4291 · United, flown by CommuteAir · 1h 23m · 79% on time, 2.9% cancelled
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52m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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17:15 IAD → 18:42 LGAUA 4077 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 27m · 77% on time, 13.9% cancelled
Total trip 3h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (13.9% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip3h 42mBUF 15:00 to LGA 18:42, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.