tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Greenville → New York via Dulles: arrives on time 34%

  1. 19:40 GSP → 21:19 IAD
    UA 4313 · United, flown by CommuteAir · 1h 39m · 83% on time, 3.5% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:05 IAD → 23:30 LGA
    UA 3682 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 25m · 58% on time, 16.1% cancelled

Total trip 3h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (3.5% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (16.1% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip3h 50mGSP 19:40 to LGA 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.