tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dayton → Charlotte via Dulles: arrives on time 46%

  1. 14:53 DAY → 16:30 IAD
    UA 4824 · United, flown by CommuteAir · 1h 37m · 80% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:20 IAD → 19:02 CLT
    UA 6209 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 42m · 73% on time, 5.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (5.4% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip4h 09mDAY 14:53 to CLT 19:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.