tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Springfield → Las Vegas via Houston: arrives on time 56%

  1. 15:05 SGF → 17:10 IAH
    UA 4840 · United, flown by CommuteAir · 2h 05m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 29m layover in Houston (IAH) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:39 IAH → 19:57 LAS
    UA 2406 · United · 3h 18m · 79% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Springfield). Times are local. Both flew on 25 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 44 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 29m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip6h 52mSGF 15:05 to LAS 19:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.