tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rochester → New York via Dulles: arrives on time 23%

  1. 19:54 ROC → 21:16 IAD
    UA 4861 · United, flown by CommuteAir · 1h 22m · 79% on time, 17.2% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:05 IAD → 23:30 LGA
    UA 3682 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 25m · 58% on time, 16.1% cancelled

Total trip 3h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (17.2% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (16.1% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip3h 36mROC 19:54 to LGA 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.