tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Manchester → Philadelphia via Dulles: arrives on time 43%

  1. 14:37 MHT → 16:35 IAD
    UA 4925 · United, flown by CommuteAir · 1h 58m · 75% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:35 IAD → 18:54 PHL
    UA 4534 · United, flown by GoJet · 1h 19m · 66% on time, 11.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip4h 17mMHT 14:37 to PHL 18:54, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.