tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Manchester → Orlando via Dulles: arrives on time 44%

  1. 14:37 MHT → 16:35 IAD
    UA 4925 · United, flown by CommuteAir · 1h 58m · 75% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:22 IAD → 19:45 MCO
    UA 2463 · United · 2h 23m · 71% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip5h 08mMHT 14:37 to MCO 19:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.