tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Greenville → Detroit via Dulles: arrives on time 53%

  1. 14:55 GSP → 16:30 IAD
    UA 4959 · United, flown by CommuteAir · 1h 35m · 80% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Dulles (IAD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:22 IAD → 19:02 DTW
    UA 6246 · United, flown by Mesa · 1h 40m · 78% on time, 4.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip4h 07mGSP 14:55 to DTW 19:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.