tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Phoenix via Seattle: arrives on time 78%

  1. 07:00 IAD → 09:45 SEA
    DL 1015 · Delta · 5h 45m · 79% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 3h 45m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:30 SEA → 16:37 PHX
    DL 2442 · Delta · 3h 02m · 82% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 12h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 180 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 45m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip12h 32mIAD 07:00 to PHX 16:37, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.