tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Portland via Seattle: arrives on time 56%

  1. 07:00 IAD → 09:45 SEA
    DL 1015 · Delta · 5h 45m · 79% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:35 SEA → 11:42 PDX
    DL 3802 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 07m · 86% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip7h 42mIAD 07:00 to PDX 11:42, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.