tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Louisville via Atlanta: arrives on time 54%

  1. 18:35 MSP → 22:15 ATL
    DL 1026 · Delta · 2h 40m · 78% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:02 ATL → 00:26 SDF +1 day
    DL 2624 · Delta · 1h 26m · 85% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip4h 53mMSP 18:35 to SDF 00:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.