tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Jacksonville → Washington via New York: arrives on time 28%

  1. 17:50 JAX → 20:27 JFK
    DL 1035 · Delta · 2h 38m · 49% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 JFK → 22:59 DCA
    DL 5743 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 39m · 68% on time, 17.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (17.4% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip5h 19mJAX 17:50 to DCA 22:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.